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CORE CONCEPTS: NONLINEARITY If you take a ball and throw it gently, it will go a short distance. If you throw the ball as hard as you can, it will go far much farther. In physics, this would be called a linear relationship between the action and the resulting effect. That is, a small action has a small effect, while a larger action will have a correspondingly greater or linear effect. You have probably heard about El Nino and La Nina. These refer to meteorological effects related to relatively small change in the trade winds in the South Pacific which lead to changes in ocean temperature and that in turn have been found to contribute to major weather changes throughout the world. This example illustrates nonlinearity. (Note: we prefer the term "nonlinear" to the commonly used term "chaos" as it is more descriptive. Also, "chaos" has a connotation of "totally without order" that is different than the scientific use of the term. Hence, nonlinear seems the better term for our purposes in business.) In a nonlinear system, under certain conditions, a small action may have a very large effect. This example illustrates what is sometimes been called the "butterfly effect." This phrase came from weather research that demonstrated how a small change in one part of the atmosphere (a butterfly flapping its wings as an extreme example) might be amplified in a complex system in ways to contribute to a large effect in another region of the system (a snow storm in Alaska). Nonlinearity also occurs in human social systems such as economics. (See Feedback for a discussion of the battle between the Beta and VHS videotape formats and how positive feedback loops lead to a nonlinear and surprising outcome over time in the marketplace.) Another aspect of nonlinearity relates to prediction (see also Randomness and chance). Strictly speaking, it is impossible to predict exactly what will happen in a complex system. However, it is often possible to make probability statements about how likely or unlikely a particular occurrence in a complex system might be, particularly if there is information about how the complex system behaved in the past and/or if there are appropriate mathematical or computer models. It has been determined that when El Nino occurs, the probability is much greater for increased amounts of rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru, which may lead to destructive flooding, and for there to be drought conditions in the West Pacific that could contribute to devastating brush fires in Australia. Finally, many people find the notion of nonlinear systems to be counter- intuitive. It "feels" wrong somehow that a little tiny butterfly flapping its wings, or even a whole bunch of butterflies, could possibly influence the weather. This is a natural reaction when one is first exposed to this idea, as most of the things in our daily lives are linear—small actions, small effect. But nonlinearity is all around us, from the weather to the global economy. Previous | Overview | Concepts | Terms | Next |
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